Falcons face tall task in Mountain West Tourney tilt with Lobos

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/11/2010 - Las Vegas, NV (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Less than 24 hours after picking up just their second win all-time in the Mountain West Conference Tournament, the Air Force Falcons are back on the hardwood of the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas as they clash with top-seeded and eighth-ranked New Mexico in the quarterfinals of the 11th annual event this afternoon.

The Falcons, who had just a single league win this season and are the ninth seed in the tourney, completely confused eighth-seeded Wyoming yesterday and came up with a stunning 59-40 win over the Cowboys. It was the fewest points allowed by the academy this season and by far the fewest points scored by the Pokes as well. The victory snapped a nine-game losing streak by Air Force, which began just after the squad's first and only MWC win, a 70-63 triumph over those same Cowboys at home back on January 30th.

As for the highly-touted Lobos, they are under the direction of Steve Alford who earned himself MWC Coach of the Year honors for the second year in a row as he guided the program to a spectacular 28-3 record and a 14-2 mark in league play after opening the MWC schedule with back-to-back losses. UNM is currently riding a 14-game win streak and a win today would not only set a new school record for wins in a single season, it would give the program its second-longest run in school history behind a 17-game streak set in 1967-68.

With respect to the all-time series between these two schools on the hardwood, the Lobos have won six straight over Air Force and now own a commanding 47-18 mark overall. However, the academy gave UNM a scare this season when it allowed the Lobos just a 59-56 win at home in The Pit, after Air Force rolled over at home a month earlier in a 73-50 decision.

The winner of this matchup heads to the semifinals on Friday to clash with the winner of the Colorado State/San Diego State battle.

The defense by the Falcons stunned Wyoming yesterday, holding the Pokes to a mere 21 points in the first half and an even weaker 19 points after the break. Wyoming finished the meeting shooting just 2-of-16 behind the three-point line, got off a total of only 33 field goal chances and sank a meager 8-of-19 at the charity stripe. Leading the way for Air Force were Grant Parker and Michael Lyons with 15 and 11 points, respectively, as the squad actually beat the Cowboys on the glass, 25-21. Parker continues to be the leading scorer for the Falcons with his 13.1 ppg, hitting 47.9 percent of his field goal attempts, while Evan Washington checks in with 10.2 ppg and combines with Parker to account for more than nine rebounds per game. Unfortunately for the academy, that still leaves the group with a rebounding deficit of nearly four boards per outing.

The Lobos, winners of this tournament back in 2005, have in their lineup the top player in the league in Darington Hobson. Not only was Hobson named the MWC Newcomer of the Year, the junior also picked up the award for MWC Player of the Year after leading the conference in rebounding with 10.1 per game and placing third in scoring (14.9 ppg) and third in assists (4.8 apg). One of the most well-rounded players to hit the MWC landscape in several years, Hobson was a beast in the final month and a half of the regular season with his 18.2 ppg, 11.0 rpg and 5.8 apg over the last nine outings. But the Lobos are so much more than just Hobson as they also get significant contributions from Roman Martinez (14.1 ppg, 6.3 rpg) who is a 42.9 percent shooter behind the three-point line, followed by Dairese Gary and Phillip McDonald with 12.4 and 10.9 ppg, respectively. Gary, also accounted for 123 assists to take some of the pressure off Hobson. Perhaps the most impressive part of the Lobos is that they had the same starting lineup for every single game this season.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.

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