CAA Football teams find it hard to catch breath

NCAA Football Betting Lines

07/28/2010 - Baltimore, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Quarterback Pat Devlin doesn't care if an opponent on Delaware's CAA Football schedule is from the north or the south. He says they could even come from the east or west, if that were possible.

No matter the direction, there rarely is a break for any CAA team in the FCS' premier conference.

"They put the teams on your schedule and you've got to go out and play 'em," Devlin said.

Devlin's positive, business-like approach isn't embraced as much by others within the CAA who are gulping over what lies ahead this season. After the conference lost two of its lower-tier programs following last season - when Northeastern and Hofstra dropped the sport - the conference dropped from two six-team divisions to one 10-team alignment. And, oh, are there now even fewer chances for a team to catch its breath than in past seasons.

Underscoring the CAA's success is the fact its teams have appeared in six of the last seven FCS championship games, and Delaware (2003), James Madison (2004), Richmond (2008) and Villanova (last season) have won titles during the big run of success. Massachusetts won in 1998.

The conference is so strong that Richmond was picked in the Top 10 nationally of at least five preseason media polls, yet was selected only sixth in the CAA's preseason poll of head coaches and sports information directors. That poll was released yesterday at the conference's media day at M&T Bank Stadium, and the brutally tough top five is led by defending national champion Villanova, followed by William & Mary, New Hampshire, James Madison and Devlin's Delaware squad.

Second-year program Old Dominion, which enters next year, and first-year program Georgia State, which follows in 2012, probably can't arrive fast enough for the rest of the conference.

"It's a league that has a lot of talent," Villanova coach Andy Talley said. "You've got to show up; you just have to show up and know that any of those teams have the ability on any given day to beat you. I love our league. The coaching is as good as it's ever been. So you're going to be challenged every week."

As in past seasons, CAA teams will continue to play eight conference games - not the possible nine. But the loss of Hofstra (5-6, 3-5 last season) and Northeastern (3-8, 3-5) from the former North Division will be felt, especially if a team faces injuries to key players during the heart of their conference schedule.

Delaware has played two of the toughest schedules in the FCS over the last two seasons, so it probably deserves some type of break this season. It gets one in the fact that the one CAA team it won't play is New Hampshire. Villanova won't play Massachusetts (picked eighth), William & Mary doesn't get Towson (10th), James Madison will miss Rhode Island (ninth), and Richmond and Maine (seventh) won't square off.

"It attests to how competitive our league is. You really can't take a week off," said Dino Vasso, New Hampshire's preseason all-conference cornerback. "There's really four or five teams that could win the whole thing (FCS title) every year."

"It's going to be a hard year with everything combined," added William & Mary preseason all-conference linebacker Jake Trantin, "so we're going to stay focused and really concentrate on each week."

Richmond defensive tackle Martin Parker, who will challenge for national defensive player of the year honors (The Sportsbook Betting Lines's Buck Buchanan Award, sponsored by Fathead.com), points out that Northeastern and Hofstra weren't gimmes on anybody's schedule. Their record last season just happened to reflect that they faced CAA teams week-in and week-out.

"If you put them in any other conference, they're probably tops in that conference," Parker said.

But not having those teams on the schedule could hurt a CAA team come playoff time. Perhaps one will have a 6-5 record instead of the 9-2 it could have in another conference. Perhaps one will make the playoffs, but be beaten up physically.

Delaware finished 15-1 and won the national title in 2003, but had to escape last-minute or overtime wins over Villanova, UMass, Maine and New Hampshire to get there.

"It's the nature of this conference," Delaware coach K.C. Keeler said. "And what you have to do is win the close games. Us losing that Richmond game (16-15) early in the season (last year) really, really killed us because it came back to bite us. We didn't get that seventh win or we'd have been in the playoffs."

"I think any of us, to get into the playoffs has the ability to win the whole thing," Talley said. "Last year, New Hampshire did, William & Mary certainly did, Richmond certainly did. The four of us would have had a chance to go depending on whether you had a home seed or didn't have a home seed or where you ended up playing somebody. If William & Mary played us at William & Mary, they probably would have beaten us."

The team that emerges the least damaged come the end of the regular season, on Nov. 20, will be a true champion, according to Mickey Matthews, the two-time Eddie Robinson Award (FCS coach of the year) at James Madison.

"I've looked at people's schedules down through the years, and whether it is a southern team or a northern team, you would see a team got a schedule break - who the crossover games were," Matthews said. "When I was at Georgia, it was that way. In the SEC, your crossover games many times determine how difficult your schedule was. That's the way we were, the three crossover games. Although we're still not all playing each other, it's going to be a more truer champion this way."

Of course, the extra grind of this season will relent a little in the coming seasons, with ODU and Georgia State pushing the CAA to 11 or 12 teams, with Rhode Island perhaps dropping out. That Rams' decision is likely to be made next month.

"It will change once the other two teams come in," Richmond coach Latrell Scott said. "That just makes it that much more competitive. I think it will be fun to have one champion."

CAA PRESEASON POLL (Head coaches and sports information directors)

1. Villanova (17 first-place votes)

2. William and Mary

3. New Hampshire (2)

4. James Madison

5. Delaware (1)

6. Richmond

7. Maine

8. Massachusetts

9. Rhode Island

10. Towson

PRESEASON CAA ALL-CONFERENCE TEAM

Offensive Player of the Year - Matt Szczur, WR, Villanova

Player of the Year - Terence Thomas, LB, Villanova

Offense

QB- Chris Whitney, Villanova. RB- John Griffin, Massachusetts; Jonathan Grimes, William & Mary. FB- Kendall Gaskins, Richmond. WR- Tre Gray, Richmond; Kevin Grayson, Richmond; Matt Szczur, Villanova. TE- Emil Igwenagu, Massachusetts. OL- Brant Clouser, Villanova; Keith Hill Jr., William & Mary; Ben Ijalana, Villanova; Drew Lachenmayer, Richmond; Theo Sherman, James Madison

Defense

DL- Ronnell Brown, James Madison; Yaky Ibia, Towson; Brian McNally, New Hampshire; Martin Parker, Richmond. LB- Tyler Holmes, Massachusetts; Eric McBride, Richmond; Terence Thomas, Villanova; Jake Trantin, William & Mary. S- Anthony Bratton, Delaware; John Dempsey, Villanova. CB- Justin Rogers, Richmond; Dino Vasso, New Hampshire

Special Teams

Return Specialist- Matt Szczur, Villanova. PK- Nick Yako, Villanova. P- David Miller, William & Mary

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Betting the NFL preseason

Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."

When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules. 

The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.

The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.

“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”

The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.

“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”

The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.

“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”

Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.

“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."

So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?

“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.

Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.

Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.

Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.

“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.

Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.

The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.

“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.

Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your bet on football needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.

Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds
Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State

It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it.

Work left to do:

Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney.

Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson.

Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable.

Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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